Prediction Not Good For McCain

Game. Set. Match.

John McCain is in a pickle. A big one. He has lost all three debates, according to both CBS and CNN news post-debate flash polls. Both of these polls were taken just after the debates and featured undecided voters who had not yet made up their minds about who to vote for in less than three weeks.

That’s not the bad part for John McCain.

The bad part is all the polls indicate that John McCain needs some major catching up to have even a remote chance of pulling an upset victory. It’s possible, but highly unlikely.

All the polls don’t really matter when it comes to the horse race. After all, Al Gore was ahead in the horserace in 2000, 17 days out, but lost. (He did win the popular vote.) Polls are a good indicator of where the country is headed, but not all together accurate. The best way to predict a winner right now is to look at the electoral map and the state-by-state data. Well, we’ve done that and it’s not good for John McCain.

Keeping the so-called toss up states in mind, Kill The Cat can now project Barack Obama the winner of the 2008 presidential election, if it were held today. Here’s how:

We have moved both Virginia and Florida from Toss-Up to Obama. The Real-Clear Politics average shows both of those states leaning toward Obama and all polls are outside the margin of error. The other toss-up states remain in yellow. If John McCain were to pull a rabbit out of his ass and win them all, he would still be short the 270 needed and Obama would emerge victorious.

There are two states in the toss-up category that we have given McCain because we feel, ultimately, McCain has them put away. Those states are Indiana and West Virginia. We almost moved North Carolina out of toss up into Obama, but the polls are still within the margin of error there. Now keep in mind, it is still 19 days away to the big day and none of this is set in stone.

But here is the quandary.

The entire war is now being fought in battleground states that Bush won in both 2000 and 2004. Now that McCain has pulled all of his resources out of Wisconsin and Michigan, the only blue state McCain hopes to blush is Pennsylvania, and that’s not reality, Greg. So, McCain is now playing defense in all the battleground states. That puts him in a VERY bad position and the probability he will keep all of them in his corner is dubious.

The plus side to all of this is that voters don’t really seem to be connecting to Obama on a personal level. Fortunately – or un – for Obama, is the voters aren’t connecting to McCain either so they are going to Obama by default; they are scared of more Republicanism. McCain needs a personal message and, like, yesterday.

PREDITCTION:

Obama wins. He will win in the popular vote and the electoral college. The only way all this can change is an outside influence. (I.E. a major international incident or the stocks rebound to well over 10,000.) I could be wrong about all this, but I’m not.

Senator McCain, if you have ever believed in the power of prayer, now would be the time you drop to your knees.

Forget a Pitt Bull...

...we're looking at a shark.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin has been under intense scrutiny over the last week - some fair, some not-so-fair. She has had no interviews with the press and the McCain camp has done little to try and clarify her image. The media has been harder on her than the Dems have, but that's another blog.

The biggest worry has been her lack of experience on the national stage and if that dearth would hinder her in a debate with Joe Biden. Last night at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, that worry was bagged and thrown out with the garbage.

Governor Palin not only met expectations, but surpassed them - proving she can speak almost as well as Biden can and like him, will embrace the traditional roll of the 'Pitt Bull' of the campaign.

She went after Obama left, right and sideways, attacking him on his experience, his record, and in a lot of cases, she down-right lied about his positions. But whatever was said about him got the crowd on their feet. She also touted her position as a wife and mother, and showed her toughness going after the environmentalists and oil companies in Alaska. She also talked about being a hunter. I am quite shocked she didn't tell the story about the time she killed a rabid moose with her loose-leaf notebook as a 5th grader.

Under all of it was her sarcastic mockery of Barack Obama which made it perfectly clear that not only is she up for a fight but the gloves are coming off and she's going to go for the balls and twist.

Joe Biden now has a new problem. His first problem was if he went after her in the debates the Reps would cry sexism. Now, the question is simply "can he handle himself at all?"

I think he can, but this is going to not only be an interesting fight, it's going to be a lot of fun.

Now, John McCain has a new, more immediate problem. McCain is not a great speaker. He's not even an average speaker. One might argue that 'poor' is being generous. He is not great behind a podium, but he is great one on one. Obama set the bar extremely high a week ago in Denver. He had a lot to show; however, everyone knows how great a speaker Obama is and how great a speaker McCain isn't. All McCain had to to was talk straight and he would do well.

As a Presidential candidate, you never want to be upstaged by your running mate. This was part of the reason, if not most, why Obama didn't chose Hillary. Now Palin has proven herself to be an outstanding speaker, though not quite the Obama level (but then again, who is?) and McCain has to do spectacularly well, or she, Gov. Palin, will have upstaged him. That will leave him in a very bad lie going into the final chapter of this excruciatingly long campaign.

Prediction: McCain will do better than expected, but will fall flat. He will give the people what they want to hear, but by the time he gets there, they will have stopped listening. The campaign will get a bounce out of the convention, bringing the polls back to an even number and that's not where the Republicans want or need to be. They need to be ahead - far - because they are going to lose ground in the next two months. If, however, McCain upstages Palin, all bets are off and the Dems are going to be sweating.....but don't count on it.

This Week's Big Winner and Loser!

This week's big winner: Louisiana and New Orleans.

The response to Hurricane Gustav has been remarkable. The evacuation of the Gulf Coast has run more smoothly than anyone expected and that is a tribute to the leadership of Governor Bobby Jindal and The Big Easy's Mayor Ray Nagin. They had a very organized campaign to clear the area and patrol the streets to protect the public from looters, which is why more people stay during natural disasters than leave.

Normally, I would say they were just doing their jobs and because they were just doing their jobs they don't qualify for being a winner. But after both the natural and political disasters of Katrina and Rita three years ago, the authorities got their butts in gear and worked to prevent them ever occurring again. After all, isn't life about learning from your mistakes?

The critical thinking and fast action of these governments are what make them this week's big winners.

This week's loser: Barack Obama.

From what was supposed to be his big week, the week of all weeks, the week that he was to re-introduce himself to the nation as a hard-hitting, take no prisoners campaigner, the week he was to prove he can make great executive decisions by choosing a vice-president the nation was very open to - has been stepped on by - (drum roll, please)

John McCain. Ouch.

The McCain camp made a very smart move by announcing the V.P choice the day after Obama's big speech in Denver. Not only did they announce it, but they created more buzz by leaking several false reports naming several potential veeps causing a frenzy at the networks. This was a very risky, but ultimately a very wise move for McCain. It payed off. The weekend headliner was to be Obama, but instead he found himself below the fold on all the major newspapers.

Obama also got a nice bounce out of the convention: Real Clear Politics shows roughly nine points. It would have been much bigger, maybe double if McCain would have waited until Sunday to announce.

But he didn't.

Now we all await the arrival of McCain's speech on Thursday. Can he hold a candle to Obama?

We shall see.

Response to The Anti-Soma's 'Hooray...'

First, let me be clear: I love The Anti-Soma. Anti-Soma is a dear friend of mine no matter how often (and it's only been once) I get mad at them. We are often at opposite sides of many issues and we have stated that, as long as we back up our own arguments, we can get as cut-throat as we want because, hey, it's fun! So, here I go.

Let me be equally clear: Anti-Soma is not going to vote Democrat if Jesus Christ himself came down from his banqueting table and ordered them otherwise. They were never looking for a reason to vote for Obama but they were looking for a reason to vote for McCain. But, come on, A.S., find a better reason. I mean, really!

On Friday, I wrote a piece regarding McCain's terrible choice for V.P. The Anti-Soma responded and you can read that here. Now, like them, I do agree you need a reason to vote for a candidate. Simply voting against a hopeful is not enough. It completely goes against the whole process. A.S. stated that they found a reason in Sarah Palin, and began to refute my reason's against her.

A.S.' logic has totally escaped them. Gone. Kablooey. Call the paddy-wagon.

In response to my suggestion that her lack of identity nation wide was going to be a liability and the McCain camp was going to need to define her before the opposition does, A.S noted:

...she did a fair job defining herself in her initial acceptance speech,
and I think she'll define herself better than anyone else possibly can
within the next two months.

It takes more that one speech to define a Presidential candidate. Just ask John Kerry. He had an excellent self-promotion tour just prior to the 2004 DNC, but the Republicans did a better job of defining him. Kerry defined himself as a war hero. Bush defined him as a traitor.

Bush won.

Think about it. She defined herself as a wife and mother. Great. But a wife and mother doesn't make you experienced enough to be President of the United States. And that's the argument that the Obama Camp is going to make. Duh.

As for the op-ad piece in the Daily Kos: it's disgraceful. It's tasteless and I won't link to it on the principle of frivolity. I agree with A.S. It's crap.

Continuing, I stated she was under Federal investigation. A.S.:

First of all, she's not under federal investigation. She's under
investigation by a state ethics committee. There are allegations, but she
has discussedwhat's going on.

Yes, I miswrote. I apologize to Mrs. Palin, her family and her supporters. But A.S. totally missed the point.

The mere fact that she is under investigation, state or otherwise, whether or not she discussed the problem, is moot. The average American voter does not care about details. They hear "investigation" and it's a black mark.

She's only held elective office for two years. Again:

This completely ignores her eight years as a mayor of a small town. John
Zogby rightfully points out that small town politics can be far more vicious and
cutthroat than those of larger towns. In other words, she's not only got two
years of elected office experience on Obama, but that all ten of her years of
elected office--as mayor and governor--give her ten more years of executive
experience than all of the other candidates, presidential and vice, put
together.

Let me see if I'm clear because I don't want to misunderstand: a small town mayor, a town roughly the size of Webb City, Missouri, gives you the 'executive experience' needed to run a country? Are you telling me that Small Town, Alaska, population 35,000 (and I am being very liberal with that number) readies her for dealing with Russia, Georgia, Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq?You are telling me, if I am clear, because Small Town, Alaskan politics are cut-throat, that she is ready for the world debate and a nation wide campaign? A.S., if that is your argument, all you, Palin and McCain are in for a very rude awakening.

Let me point out the fact that Senator Obama, who I am not endorsing by any means, has far more foreign policy experience than she does. Why? Oh, yeah. She has none. Obama has about the same amount experience on the Nation wide stage as she, but McCain keeps touting Obama's lack of experience. All I am saying is Gov. Palin totally diminishes his own argument against Obama. Her time in Small Town, AK has prepared her for conflict with Caribou, not Putin. Give me a break.

Now, I agree that Palin is not to be underestimated. I am not saying that she is going to be a bad campaigner. I am simply saying that McCain's choice, at first read, looks senile. He wanted a woman so he chose a woman he met once, during the vetting process who has no experience what so ever. There are far more qualified women to take that spot if he really wanted a female. The fact he chose THIS female is what will be perceived as being condescending.

Geraldine Ferraro even said so.

Palin by Comparison

Republican Presidential hopeful, John McCain, has chosen his running mate: Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

McCain was hoping to steal some of the women vote with this choice. Palin as 44 years old, a one term Governor from an insignificant state electorally and has only held her current position for less than two years.

McCain was wanting a surprise. He was wanting to show he could think outside the box and choose someone who would make the country say, "Wow. Who-da thunk it? Bravo!"

It didn't.

I will do for you, what McCain should have done for himself. I will make a list of pros and cons and then pass judgement, so to speak.

Affirmative Palin:

1. She's a Woman. She will make the disgruntled Hillary voters give a second look to McCain before voting for Obama.

2. She's a staunch conservative: pro-life, anti-gay marriage, pro-guns. She will help bring the Evangelicals over to the McCain camp, especially since they have been glaring at him whilecarrying crosses and garlic.

3. She's attractive. (It's superficial, but it matters.) A former Miss Alaska.

4. She's a governor which will help the "executive experience" debate. She also has an amazing approval rating: upwards of 80%.

5. She's "outside" Washington.

Negative Palin:

1. Who the hell is Sarah Palin? No one knows her. The McCain camp is going to need to define her and hope to hell they do it before Obama does.

2. She's under federal investigation for abuse of power. Hmm, abuse of power - that certainly negates the "I'm nothing like Bush" argument.

3. She has praised Obama in the not-so-distant past regarding his energy plan - a definite difference between he and McCain.

4. She has only held elective office for a total of two years. This causes the McCain camp to give up the argument that Obama is inexperienced. Especially because he has held elected office 8 years longer than she.

5. She's a woman. - No, I'm not being sexist here, so stop it. But there is an element of risk here. McCain wants to attract women 35 to 50 to him. But the Palin pick could be seen as a condescending move. It also adds an element of risk because her abortion stance will be seen

as a liability to democratic women.

6. The Alaskan Republican party is a mess and though she is not currently linked to them, Senator Ted Stevens and Representative Don Young are in legal pickles of their own. This is also giving democrats an edge in Alaska and could further hurt the McCain camp up there.

So there you have it. The cons outweigh the pros. This was a very risky and will ultimately be a very bad move for McCain.

The only smart move today was the way the info was released: the day after the Obama speech at the DNC, stealing his thunder.

However, if Dems try to paint her as another Agnew or Quayle, it will come back to haunt them. Too, Joe Biden now faces a very tough line to tow in the V.P. debate in St. Louis on October 2nd. He can now no longer be the pit bull that Obama needed. If he is, he will be accused of exactly what Obama was accused of: sexist.

"Convention"al Wisdom

The 2008 Democratic National Convention was not a hit. It was a punch. It wasn't a tap. It was a bitch-slap. It didn't start out as such.

At midpoint, I was very nervous for the Democrats, who seemed to have such an advantage going in to this year but were actually losing going into Denver. Obama was letting McCain walk all over him at every turn. Ad after ad after ad blasted Obama for his lack of experience, this celebrity following and, yes, even his patriotism. Obama was not fighting back and McCain was rising in the polls. The Democrats needed firepower and now!

Nothing was strong. The first day, neither W. nor McCain were mentioned in prime time. Michelle talked extensively in her keynote about Barack as a boyfriend, husband and father and little else. Hillary's speech was pedestrian at best. She did what she needed to do to keep the blame off her and Bill's legacy should Barack lose. She made a few good points, but alas, it was not the greatest of speeches. Bill's was the same way. Joe Biden, Barack's Veep, had a well written speech, but poorly executed. Nothing seemed to be working in Obama's favor. The only surrogate which seemed to get the memo of exactly what to do was John Kerry. If Kerry had spoken at his convention the way he did this year, this would have been a gathering about re-nominating him.

Cue Obama.

At every turn, Obama had been playing the nice guy. The good guy. The guy who refused to go after and define his opponent, instead letting his opponent define him. At every turn Obama was getting slapped in the face with a proverbial flounder and McCain was enjoying it.

McCain was also hitting Obama on the spectacle of the convention venue, calling it "a Greek temple" and tried to add another question mark over Obama's skull by cynically asking whether or not he was delivering his speech in a toga.

The set was a bit Broadway, even for politics and the confetti cannons and fireworks seemed to be more a center-piece than accented flare. This may come back to hurt Obama.

He walked up to the podium and gave the speech of his life. It had what the other speeches lacked: substance. It lacked what his other speeches had an abundance of: poetry.

It also decked McCain in the one-hundred-point spot! He held fast to his plan, he stayed on message, and he brought up his weaknesses - or the ones the Republican machine will try to create - before they could which fizzles their attacks. Smart move.

The speech, though not perfect, was exactly what the convention needed. Either by accident or by perfect planning, the convention was a lot like the month of March: in like a lamb; out like a lion.

Here is an excerpt of Obama's acceptence speech at the Democratic National Convention:

Another One Bites the Biden!

I was rudely awakened this morning at but the inane buzz of my shamefully outdated Samsung 2200; I received the now infamous email from the Obama campaign (ironically received at 3 am) announcing Joe Biden as the Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate. I predicted this in my post last Tuesday; now we shall see how I do on Friday when McCain sends Western Unions to all his supporters.

Joe Biden is a spectacular choice for ol' Bama. First, he's a liar - a quality that seems to be the quintessential requirement to be a successful politician. He was quoted as saying, the very day I posted my prediction of this outcome - "I'm not the guy!" My very good friend from Theanti-soma noted that I was wrong and Biden would not be VP. (Privately, I said that Biden was bluffing.)

Secondly, Biden is one HELL of a speaker, which would help reiterate Obama's gift of the telepromtered word. But unlike Obama, Biden is also extremely quick on his feet. He is the one who came up with the famous observation about Rudy Gulliani, "A noun, a verb and 9/11"

Finally, Biden has hella experience that Obama doesn't. This is a hard ticket to beat. This is THE ticket to beat. Many pundits at this moment are contemplating the poll bounce that Obama may get out of this.

Prediction: Obama WILL get a bounce out of this pick - more than any others, including Hillary Clinton. And it will be big!

Veep, Veep - Vroom, Vroom!

The race for the Vice-President is on.

Oh, wait! That's right. There is not race for VP. We don't vote on the Veep because no one cares about that office, not even the poor schlep who holds that position. Why? Because the Vice-President is kind of like the Queen of England - she can't even get Springsteen tickets without talking to Oprah first.

So, why do we care?

We don't. In past elections, if we would have had more forethought to the Vice Presidential candidate, the election would have turned out differently. Case and point: Michael Dukakis would have been elected in 1988 in lieu of George H. W. Bush because Lloyd Bentson was a hell of a lot better than Dan Quayle.

This year is different. We have an African American so people are looking to his possible successor because so many idiots are afraid he won't make it to a second term without meeting and assassin's bullet; we have another candidate who personally watched Moses bring down the stone tablets from atop Mt. Sinai so the fear of him dropping dead from the shear shock of victory is also in the front of the minds of voters.So all attention is on the Veeps. Who will it be? No one knows. Wednesday, August 20th, Barack Obama is expected to announce his choice. McCain, a week later. No one knows who the un-lucky sons-of-bitches will be, but it is fun to guess.So here are my predictions:

SENATOR OBAMA:

Barack Obama is in a really tough spot right now. He is very unknown and that in hurting him. He also has a dearth of governing and military experience. He needs someone to balance that out. There have been three names mentioned more than anyone: Senator Joe Biden of Delaware. Senator Evan Bahye of Indiana and Governor Tim Kayne of Virginia.One thing is clear, Hillary Clinton is out of the running because she is already slated to speak at the DNC, two days prior to the Veep is scheduled to speak.

Who SHOULD: Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico. This is for several reasons: One, he has governing and administrative experience serving two terms and New Mexico's governor and eight years in Bill Clinton's Cabinet. Two, he has foreign relations experience serving as ambassador to several nations. Three, he will help with the Latino vote. Four, he has a military service record. By all accounts, he is more qualified to be president that Obama himself. That will help him. Finally, he does not have the personality to overshadow Obama that say, Hillary, has.

Who WILL: Senator Joe Biden. Senator Biden has foreign policy experience serving on the Foreign Policy committee of nearly thirty years. He is smart, sharp, a great speaker - and is not too nice of a guy - which is great when you consider the Veep's job is to be more attack dog in the campaign. The only problem, is he could be too popular as far as his credentials are concerned and overshadow Obama. This won't be good. He also tends to let his mouth get away from him and it could hurt the campaign.

SENATOR McCAIN:

For all intents and purposes, McCain is in a really great lie right now. He is closing the gap between himself and Obama, he is well known, people know where his goes and his choice isn't as critical here. But he is the second to announce, so if he plays his had right, McCain could chooses someone that will help grab voters, say a woman. Someone young to balance out his years wouldn't hurt either.

But the thing he really needs to pay attention to is the Conservative vote. He is considered to be too much of a maverick by most elephants so it stands to reason he needs someone really psycho right.Though several names have been tossed around here, a surprise is actually expected.

Who SHOULD: Congresswoman JoAnn Emerson of Missouri. This is actually a perfect choice. It also plays the "unexpected" card. She is Washington having been in congress for nearly 15 years. She is relatively young, energetic and extremely conservative. She is not known on the national scene, but that doesn't matter considering Missouri is a major swing state, and however Mo goes, so goes the nation. Emerson will sure up Missouri, handing McCain the proverbial Garden of good and evil. Also, the woman vote here could be more impressive. Women could swing over to McCain, especially with Obama not picking up Hil.

Who WILL: Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota. He is one of several names who have been kicked around but the smart move here is he is far more conservative than McCain, he is young, and he is the governor of a blue state which could take it out of the Dem column and move it to the Rep side come election night. McCain desperately needs one of those considering most of the flips are expected to be Rep to Dem. Red to Blue. Pawlenty is also a great speaker behind the podium, and looks far more presidential than McCain. He also has a full head of hair.

I may be wrong here - but I doubt it. And if I am, I will eat my words. We shall soon find out.